One-Year Meta Analysis: Base-Fossil Format
Video format here:
Current State of Pokémon 1999 Base-Fossil Metagame
Welcome back, let’s take a deep dive into the current state of the Base-Fossil Pokémon TCG meta—after a full year of analysis. Let’s unpack the key developments and explore where we might be heading next.
Disclaimers
- I’m not a statistician, so keep in mind that some of the matchups might be based on small sample sizes.
- Even though our numbers are improving, outliers are definitely possible because the data pool is still pretty small.
- This is by no means the final word on the Base-Fossil meta—things are evolving and could change as more tournaments happen.
- We’re missing some TCGOne data, which I’d love to include in the future.
- Sometimes I’m speculating, and I’ll flag those moments in red; if I’m confident, I’ll highlight in green.
- Check the timestamps in the video if you just want to skip straight to the tier list.
Wig Zoo Build
- A newer archetype that’s showing up is this Wig Zoo build, which is like a traditional Wigglytuff deck but it uses multiple partners instead of just one.
- The strategy behind using multiple partners is to exploit weaknesses across several decks, especially targeting Psy Stall.
- Instead of just a single Hitmonchan to counter Lickitung, you also pack Magmars to handle Scythers, plus Mewtwo to deal with other psychic Pokémon and Mew.
- This deck has been making waves, winning three out of 18 championships this year, which is pretty significant.
- It has potential to shape the meta in a big way, but we don’t have a ton of data on it yet so that’s something to keep in mind.
- It’s a slower, more methodical deck compared to other Wigglytuff decks that usually try to go faster, relying on Item Finders to keep Energy Retrievals going and help weather stall matchups.
- Right now, it’s been doing great against stall decks—88% win rate against Psy Stall—and it’s also pretty good against Trad Makers.
- We don’t have enough data yet on matchups outside of stall decks and Trad Makers, so there’s still some mystery around this build.
- Another thing to note is that some of the best players, like Bayor, are using this deck, so it’s unclear how well it will do in a more general field.
Psy Stall
- This deck is the most played deck of the year, and it’s built around Lickitung, Scyther, and psychic Pokémon.
- It’s won six out of the 18 championships so far, which is impressive.
- It’s a consistent performer and widely considered the top deck in the format.
- It matches up well against DFW decks (Dodrio, Fighting, Wigglytuff), giving it a good handle on that part of the meta.
- It also handles Trad Makers pretty well, making it solid against aggressive, aggroish decks.
- Combo decks like Rain Dance and Ninebomb have a tough time with Psy Stall, likely because Psy Stall has so many basic Pokémon that help it survive against those fast decks.
- It’s also looking decent against DFP decks, though data on that matchup is still a little thin.
- The only clear problem area so far is the Wig Zoo matchup, but that might change as more games are played.
- Interestingly, Moltres has been catching up to Psy Stall recently in terms of performance, and it’s now almost even.
- Psy Stall has also pulled ahead of DFW, flipping an earlier trend where DFW had the advantage.
- Since this is the most played deck, the sample size is solid, though the Wig Zoo and DFP matchups still need more data.
- A small worry is that new players might be picking this deck as the BDIF and then not playing it well, potentially skewing results.
Moltres
- Moltres is the second most played deck this year, and the version that’s been doing well was played by Luke Townsen at BCOS2.
- This list notably doesn’t use Muk, which I think is a smart call because the older Jason list that used Muk wasn’t as effective.
- Moltres finally snagged a championship win this year, which hadn’t happened before.
- Its numbers are trending upward, and it’s finally performing closer to how good I always thought it could be.
- It’s strong against DFP decks and also matches up well against Ninebomb decks.
- Similar to Psy Stall, Moltres has lots of basic Pokémon, so it can hold its own against Ninebomb’s donk potential.
- It still struggles against some aggressive decks but is starting to catch up with Psy Stall now that players are refining it.
- A big part of that improvement is Luke’s use of Ditto to handle Wigglytuffs, which really helps out the deck overall.
- Overall, Moltres is in a better spot now and is looking like a contender.
Wigmar
- Wigmar is a deck from Ophthalmoscope that’s more streamlined than the typical Zoo decks.
- It’s currently the third most played deck this year, but it seems to be losing traction.
- Players are starting to switch over to DFW or Wig Zoo builds, which is understandable because they’re showing better results.
- Trad Maker decks are also giving Wigmar a tough time and eating into its success.
- It does okay against some of the slower decks, though that might not matter much in a faster meta.
- The matchup against Trad Maker is particularly bad (22% win rate) because Electabuzz disrupts Dodrio, which is crucial for Wigglytuff decks to cycle attackers.
- Wigmar also has a hard time against DFP decks since the fighting Pokémon hit Wigglytuff’s weakness.
- It’s not great against Psy Stall either, which is a problem in this format.
- Overall, it looks like Wigmar is on the decline as players gravitate to stronger options.
DFW
- DFW is the fourth most played deck and is similar to Wigmar but includes Hitmonchans.
- It has one championship this year, so it’s still relevant.
- DFW does pretty well against Moltres and also holds its own against Wigmar.
- Unfortunately, it’s fallen behind recently, especially against Psy Stall.
- It struggles with Trad Maker decks because of Electabuzz, which hits Dodrio hard.
- It’s also not great against Rain Dance, likely because it has fewer basics and can get donked out before it sets up.
- Overall, DFW is trending downward but not as rapidly as Wigmar.
- There’s a sense that players might be moving over to Wig Zoo builds instead, which could explain the shift.
Trad Maker
- Trad Maker is the fifth most played deck, and it’s often built around Electabuzz—Joe used this build at BCOS2.
- Some builds might also use Magmar because it doesn’t face much resistance, but Electabuzz is probably a better choice right now.
- Trad Maker secured one championship this year, which shows its potential.
- The deck’s numbers are going up as more players pick it up, likely because it counters popular Wiggly and Dodrio decks.
- It’s also solid against Rain Dance thanks to Electabuzz.
- On the downside, Psy Stall completely wrecks Trad Maker, but it holds up well against most other decks.
- I’d like to see more data on how it performs against Wig Zoo, but I’d guess it’s pretty good since Wig Zoo is slower.
Rain Dance
- Rain Dance is a deck by Ophthalmoscope that I also piloted to a league win myself.
- The game plan is to get Blastoise set up fast and try to donk the opponent with a combo strategy.
- It’s the sixth most played deck and has two championship wins.
- It struggles hard against DFW and also has issues against Wigmar.
- My concerns from last time still hold—there’s a big divide between nostalgia players who want to play Blastoise and people who are grinding the meta.
- A lot of Rain Dance players are getting blown out in tournaments, and it’s underplayed overall.
- I’m not sure if some players are overperforming with it due to luck, but it’s hard to pin down exactly why Wigmar keeps beating it.
Other Decks
- DFP is looking really solid against most of the field and especially against Wiggly decks, but it’s just not seeing much play.
- Ninebomb still has a terrible win rate—around 20%—so probably not something you’d bring to a tournament.
- DF Zard is an emerging deck that picked up a championship this year.
- Steppen has a decent win rate and a championship, though that might just be an outlier.
- Grass Stall is a sleeper pick but not many people are running it.
- Venus Center might be able to pull some numbers, but it’s unclear right now.
- Clefable and Eggs are other decks floating around, but they don’t have enough data yet to know how they’re doing.
Overall Win Percentages
- Wig Zoo and Psy Stall are the two decks that are really overperforming right now.
- Ideally, you’d want most decks sitting around a 50% win rate so things are balanced.
- I expect Wig Zoo and Steppen to come down in win rate as the meta settles.
- Moltres and Trad Maker should continue to rise as more players start using them.
Rock-Paper-Scissors Possibility
- There might be a rock-paper-scissors dynamic forming:
- Wig Zoo beats Psy Stall.
- Trad Maker beats Wig Zoo.
- Psy Stall beats Trad Maker.
- It’ll be interesting to see if that actually plays out.
Speculative Tier List
- S-tier: Psy and Wig Zoo are looking like the top decks right now.
- A-tier: DFP and DFW are solid decks that handle a lot of the field.
- B-tier: Wigmar, Moltres, Trad Maker, and Grass Stall are floating in the middle.
- C-tier: DF Zard, Steppen decks, Dragonite decks, and Rain Dance are in the lower tier.
- D-tier: Venus Center and the various donk decks are at the bottom.
- Decks like Clefable and Eggs and Hypno Control are unknowns but probably on the lower end too.
Conclusion
So I think this is the shape of the meta currently, but things could change, could pan out differently. And I hope I kept that to a short time and I hope to see you around playing some Pokémon. See you.
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